Carney hint over interest rates rise delay

Carney hint over interest rates rise delay

Dubbed “Super Thursday” by economists, the decision was accompanied by the minutes of the meeting and the bank’s Quarterly Inflation Report for August.



Whole-economy pay grew by 3.2 per cent in the three months to May compared to the same period a year earlier, which was one percentage point stronger than expected in the May report, the bank says.

It expects inflation to be “muted” this year.

The central bank noted “the drag on import prices from the appreciation will continue to push down inflation for some time to come”, dialing back expectations for many that a rate rise could soon be on the cards.

The Bank of England has held Base Rate at 0.5% again in August, following the latest meeting of the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

PwC’s chief economist in Northern Ireland Esmond Birnie said the rates decision was “not a suprise”. Carney said the outlook is “consistent” with the need for interest-rate increases – but only in due course.

“Short term interest rates have averaged around 4.5% since around the Bank’s inception three centuries ago”, said Carney in a speech on July 16.

“CPI inflation fell back to zero in June”.

“There is not that much inflationary pressure at the moment, [although] we expect that to build over time but as I saw it… there isn’t any urgency to raise interest rates right now”.

Mr Carney accepted that the likelihood of a rate increase was drawing nearer, but he added, “The exact timing of the first move can not be predicted in advance; it will be the product of economic developments and prospects”.

McCafferty, along with fellow hawk Martin Weale, voted for a rise in Bank Rate last autumn then later changed their minds due to low inflation.

“In the absence of further falls in commodity prices, however, inflation rates close to zero are unlikely to endure beyond this year”.

“Were bank rate to follow the gently rising path implied by market yields, the committee judges that demand growth would be sufficient to return inflation to the target within two years”, the MPC minutes added.

The bank slashed interest rates to 0.5% in the depths of the financial crisis in 2009 and has kept them there ever since.

Richard de Meo at another forex specialist, Foenix, reckons a split decision on the interest rate is the most likely outcome, but in order for the market to get too excited it would have to involve a third MPC member joining the two recognised hawks on the committee.

The British pound fell Thursday as the Bank of England kept interest rates low

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